The Anthropic Effect: How Big Tech’s AI Bets Are Reshaping Earnings Reports

Alphabet reported a staggering 81% profit surge to $62.6 billion in Q1 2026. But nearly half of that—$28.7 billion—came from an unusual source: the rising value of its stake in Anthropic, the AI startup. Amazon followed suit, booking $16.8 billion in pre-tax gains from its own Anthropic holdings, accounting for more than half its quarterly pre-tax income.

These aren’t cash profits. They’re accounting adjustments required by a 2018 FASB rule that forces companies to mark private equity holdings to market after new funding rounds. Anthropic’s Series G and Amazon’s conversion of convertible notes triggered the jumps. Amazon’s original $8 billion investment now sits at $70 billion on its books. Alphabet, with an estimated 14% stake before a fresh $40 billion commitment, recorded a $36.9 billion equity gain—three times its previous high.

Robert Willens, a tax and accounting consultant, noted the irony: “It’s interesting that they’re able to control or influence the value of one of their own assets… by engaging in business transactions with that entity.” In essence, the more these giants invest in Anthropic—through equity or cloud contracts—the higher its valuation climbs, lifting their existing stakes. No cash needed. No sales required.

Meanwhile, cloud revenue surged. AWS hit $37.6 billion, up 28%. Google Cloud grew 63% to $20 billion. But capital expenditures tell a different story: the big four—Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta—spent $130.65 billion on capex in Q1 alone, nearly triple the inflation-adjusted Manhattan Project cost. Full-year plans approach $700 billion, rivaling U.S. Medicare spending.

Anthropic now leads the LLM market with 31.4% revenue share, edging OpenAI’s 29%, despite having far fewer users. Average revenue per user: $16.20 versus OpenAI’s $2.20. Amazon’s total commitment to Anthropic hits $25 billion, securing a $100 billion, decade-long AWS deal. Google matches with up to $40 billion. It’s infrastructure lock-in, not just venture bets.

Critics see a fragile cycle. If valuations stall or Anthropic falters, paper profits reverse. Capex burns cash. Returns remain unclear. For now, demand outpaces supply, and capacity constraints stretch into 2027. As one X user noted: “Anthropic is the secret sauce this earnings season.” The question is how long the recipe holds.

Source: Webpronews