Rhodium Report: Chinese AI Models Earn a Fraction of OpenAI and Anthropic Revenue

China's AI models are being adopted quickly, but the money isn't following, according to estimates from U.S. research firm Rhodium Group. All Chinese AI models combined bring in roughly 10% of the revenue reported by OpenAI and Anthropic.

The figures rely on annual recurring revenue, a metric that multiplies a recent monthly figure by 12 to capture fast growth. DeepSeek posted the lowest ARR among major Chinese players at $500 million, followed by MiniMax at $800 million and Moonshot at $1 billion. Z.ai told investors Wednesday its latest ARR was $1.8 billion, according to a transcript seen by CNBC. Even ByteDance's $4 billion and Alibaba's $2.4 billion fell far short of OpenAI's $40 billion and Anthropic's $65 billion, Rhodium said.

The report flagged that valuations are running well ahead of revenue. Rhodium estimated multiples of 50x for Moonshot and 163x for DeepSeek, compared with 34x for OpenAI and 21x for Anthropic. Anthropic is reportedly expected to list in the U.S. next month, while OpenAI has pushed its IPO plans to next year. Moonshot has reportedly filed confidentially for a Hong Kong IPO, and DeepSeek is also reportedly preparing a listing. Moonshot said it does not comment on market rumors or speculation; DeepSeek and Anthropic did not respond to requests for comment.

Rhodium noted its analysis could only use the latest available figures from this summer, and usage of Chinese models has climbed sharply from low levels earlier this year. Z.ai said Wednesday it now expects ARR of $3 billion by year's end, up from a prior $2.4 billion forecast. The firm also said Chinese labs are exploring ways to capture more revenue from third parties offering access to their open-source models.

Logan Wright, a Rhodium partner who co-authored the report with analyst Endeavour Tian, said the financing gap will make it harder for Chinese frontier labs to scale sustainably, leaving them dependent on favorable equity markets. Rhodium estimated more than 60% of equity investment in Chinese AI chips and servers came from state-affiliated sources.

It has been a volatile year for listed Chinese AI companies. Z.ai shares rose more than 5% Thursday morning after a decline earlier in the week tied to its second major fundraise in two months; the Hong Kong-traded stock has fallen back to spring levels after briefly more than tripling over the summer. Rival MiniMax has struggled in recent months to hold above its IPO-day gains.

Source: CNBC