Novo Nordisk Eyes 15 Million Medicare Patients as Coverage for Obesity Drugs Begins

Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar outlined a significant opportunity this week, estimating the company could initially reach about 15 million new patients when Medicare starts covering obesity treatments for the first time. The historic coverage stems from a "most-favored-nation" pricing agreement negotiated between the drugmaker, rival Eli Lilly, and the Trump administration last November.

While some analysts suggest 20 to 30 million Medicare beneficiaries live with obesity, Doustdar told CNBC the 15 million figure represents a more targeted group suitable for Novo's products. He cautioned that patient uptake will be gradual, mirroring the slow adoption seen in commercial insurance markets. "It would be great if we could find a way to get access very, very fast. But I think that would be a bit naive," he said.

The CEO's tempered outlook contrasts with Lilly, which has cited the policy change as a key driver for its 2026 forecast and expects coverage to begin by July. Doustdar noted Novo is still finalizing the exact start date with the government.

This expansion comes as Novo works to regain ground in the competitive weight-loss drug market. Lilly recently reported holding over 60% of the U.S. obesity and diabetes market, compared to Novo's 39%. To close the gap, Doustdar is betting on the company's new obesity pill and a higher-dose injection of Wegovy. He highlighted clinical data showing the pill led to 16.6% weight loss, which he claims is significantly more effective than Lilly's pending oral drug. A forthcoming, higher-strength Wegovy injection, he added, shows weight loss comparable to Lilly's top-selling Zepbound.

"When that comes to the market, my thought, my wish, my hope is that people will realize, OK, now we have two products with similar efficacy," Doustdar said.

Source: CNBC